Surge in Gold Prices and Capacity Expansion Drive Strong H1 Earnings Outlook for Gold Miners, with Top Performer Forecasting 141% Growth

During the first six months of 2025, Chinese gold mining companies posted strong earnings performance, largely supported by rising gold prices and expanded output. Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) reported estimated net income attributable to shareholders of between RMB 2.614 billion and RMB 2.875 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50%–65% (RMB 871 million–1.133 billion). Western Gold (601069.SH) projected net earnings of RMB 130 million to RMB 160 million, marking a rise of 96.35%–141.66% compared to a year earlier (RMB 63.79 million–93.79 million). Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) anticipated a profit ranging from RMB 613 million to RMB 701 million, up 40%–60%.

Zijin Mining (601899.SH, 02899.HK) forecast a first-half profit of approximately RMB 23.2 billion attributable to shareholders, a 54% increase or RMB 8.1 billion higher year-on-year. In Q2 alone, the company expected net profit to reach RMB 13 billion, rising 27% from Q1’s RMB 10.2 billion.

Chifeng Gold (600988.SH, 06693.HK) projected earnings of RMB 1.08 billion to RMB 1.13 billion, a year-on-year increase between 52.01% and 59.04%. Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), recently listed in Hong Kong, estimated earnings of RMB 1.54 billion to RMB 1.64 billion, a growth of 43.24%–52.55%. Meanwhile, Shandong Gold (600547.SH) anticipated net income of RMB 2.55 billion to RMB 3.05 billion, representing an increase of 84.3%–120.5% and the highest growth rate among preliminary results released.

This round of profits was largely underpinned by gold’s price rally. From January to June 2025, spot prices for gold in London surged more than 25%—the sharpest half-year increase since late 2007. Prices reached a peak of USD 3,500 per ounce in April before entering a volatile phase. Analysts expect strong demand for safe-haven assets and continued buying by central banks to support prices throughout the remainder of the year.

Leading companies also raised output to leverage favorable market conditions. Zijin Mining reported production of 410,000 tons of mined gold in the first half, up 17% year-on-year. Mined gold remained its fastest-growing segment, excluding new lithium carbonate output. In addition, several companies made progress in expanding resource reserves.

In April, Shandong Gold disclosed new developments on gold mining projects in Gansu Province, containing more than 80 tons of recoverable resources and an annual production forecast of 5–6 tons. That same month, Zijin Mining completed its acquisition of Ghana’s Akim Gold Project, expected to yield 5.8 tons annually. In June, Zijin announced its purchase of the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, with projected yearly production of 5.5 tons.

These enterprise-level expansions coincide with the rollout of a new strategic framework. On June 23, nine ministries and commissions—including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Natural Resources—jointly issued the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025–2027).

The plan targets improvements in resource protection and industrial advancement. By 2027, national gold reserves are expected to grow 5%–10%, and combined output of gold and silver by over 5%. It also calls for deploying core technologies such as ultra-deep mining (below 2,000 meters) and non-cyanide extraction methods, while expanding domestic supply of premium gold and silver materials. The goal is for over 70% of domestic gold production to come from mines processing more than 500 tons daily, supported by a modernized industrial structure and more competitive enterprise network. The 2035 vision sets out a globally recognized, technologically advanced gold industry.

The plan identifies gold as both a strategic resource and a monetary asset, essential for safeguarding national financial and industrial interests. Despite its status as the top gold producer and consumer globally, China still faces challenges in securing domestic resource supply and strengthening the sector’s technological capabilities.