The US CPI and other economic data for July will be released this week! The Fed's interest rate cut schedule may be reshaped.

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) announced an additional investment of $100 billion in the United States to boost the technology sector, leading the US stock market to return to near historic highs. Last week, the S&P 500 index rose by 2.5%; the Nasdaq Composite index reached a new high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 4%; the Dow Jones index rose by about 1.4%. Currently, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year. The US July CPI, to be released on Tuesday, will undoubtedly be the focus of economic data this week. Investors will also closely monitor the latest dynamics of US July PPI, retail sales, and consumer confidence. In terms of corporate earnings, only 8 companies in the S&P 500 index will release their latest financial reports this week, with reports from CAVA (CAVA.US), Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO.US), and Deere & Company (DE.US) expected to be highlights. New Federal Reserve Officials The relatively flat economic data of the past week has not changed the recent economic narrative shift. Due to concerns about a weakening labor market, investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points this year. President Trump has nominated his economic advisory committee chairman, Stephen Miran, to become a Federal Reserve governor to replace Adriana Kugler, who previously announced her resignation, intensifying predictions that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates. Federal Reserve officials are divided on the direction of interest rate policy. During the recent rate-setting meeting, Federal Reserve Board members Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman disagreed with the decision to maintain interest rates. Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist at J.P. Morgan, stated that if Miran is confirmed as a Federal Reserve governor before the September rate-setting meeting, there could be at least three dissenting votes against keeping rates unchanged. He said, "For Powell, risk management at the next rate-setting meeting may not just balance employment and inflation risks. We now believe the path of least resistance is to move the next 25 basis point rate cut to September." Inflation Data The US July CPI will be released on Tuesday at 20:30 Beijing time. The market expects this data to reflect the impact of tariffs on inflation. Wall Street economists expect the US July CPI to rise by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than June's 2.7%. The core July CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 3% year-on-year, higher than June's 2.9%; the core CPI for July is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than June's 0.2%. Alan Detmeister, Senior Economist at UBS Group AG, pointed out that tariffs are driving accelerating inflation, and the data for July will start a trend of rising inflation that will continue for several months. He predicts that by the end of this year, the year-on-year increase in core CPI in the US will rise from 2.9% in June to 3.5%. Retail Sales US July retail sales data will be released on Friday at 20:30 Beijing time. Investors will learn the latest news on consumer spending from this data. Economists expect US July retail sales to increase by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly lower than June's 0.6%. Michael Reid, Senior US Economist at RBC, expects a significant portion of this growth to come from auto sales. He predicts that excluding volatile items such as automobiles and including the retail sales control group that factors into GDP for the quarter, sales will only increase by 0.1%. He said, We expect the data excluding automobiles to be mediocre. Bitcoin or Bread? Market speculation enthusiasm remains high. The latest research by Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slk, indicates that as the largest market-cap stock in the S&P 500 index, NVIDIA Corporation's (NVDA.US) price-to-earnings ratio is at its highest level since Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) in 1999. At the same time, stocks like Firefly Aerospace (FLY.US) soared on their first day of trading, and cryptocurrencies and related stocks have seen a new round of rebounds. Richard Bernstein Advisors CEO Richard Bernstein stated that there are typically two scenarios that can end market speculation fever. One is if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates due to high inflation, which would increase leverage costs for investors and companies, restricting market liquidity. The other is if the Federal Reserve cuts rates when the economy is rapidly slowing down and on the brink of recession. Bernstein said, When you combine the two, people will stop speculating because they have to buy things like bread and groceries. They won't speculate on bitcoin. They need bread. In his view, the current dilemma of the Federal Reserve has become the focus of investor attention, as they want to know how much further the market can rise. Bernstein said, The market must carefully observe the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve. Is the job data weak enough to make the Federal Reserve cut rates, but not enough to trigger an economic recession, prompting people to shift from bitcoin to bread? That is the dilemma the Federal Reserve is currently facing.