America linkage: The transaction volume of new real estate projects in Hong Kong has reached 80% of the total for last year, with local purchasing power becoming the main force again.

Chief Analyst Liu Jiahui of Midland Realty pointed out that the property market in Hong Kong has been very active this year, with the latest transaction volume of new properties exceeding 80% of last year's total. The transactions of new properties are mainly driven by the buying power of the local Hong Kong people, and it is believed that the local people will continue to actively enter the market in the low-interest environment. Midland Realty analyst Can Songqian expects that, driven by favorable factors, the annual transaction volume of new properties is bound to reach a record high, with second-hand transactions reaching 45,000 transactions, a 4-year high. It is believed that property prices will remain stable and rise. Can Songqian believes that the purchasing power of local Hong Kong people has returned to the dominant position for various reasons. Firstly, this year's property market transactions have been concentrated on small and medium-sized units, which are more popular among local Hong Kong people. If divided by amount, the percentage of local buyers registering for first-hand private residential units under 6 million Hong Kong dollars in the first 7 months of this year has increased to 76.9%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to the 73% for the whole of last year. On the other hand, the percentage for over 6 million to 10 million Hong Kong dollars and over 10 million Hong Kong dollars has decreased. Can Songqian pointed out that whether the purchasing power of Hong Kong people will further increase largely depends on the property market policies and interest rate trends. The property measures in the September Policy Address will influence the intention of local and new Hong Kong people to enter the market. As for interest rates, the one-month HIBOR has risen recently, but it is still lower than last year's highs. According to recent statements by Powell, there is a high chance that the US will cut interest rates this year, and it is believed that the HIBOR may subsequently fall, with even a possibility of Hong Kong banks reducing their prime rates, leading to a decrease in interest rates and boosting purchasing power in the market. In a low-interest environment, it is believed that the intention of local Hong Kong people to enter the market will remain high, continuing to dominate the Hong Kong property market, with an expected challenge for local buyers to account for 70% of the registration for first-hand private residential units and an increase to 60% in terms of amount. Liu Jiahui pointed out that the biggest negative factor for the property market at the moment is the rising unemployment rate, although the latest unemployment rate in the financial sector has started to decline. Financial professionals have always been an important purchasing power in the property market, and if the outlook for the financial sector is stable, it is believed that the property market transactions will stabilize. Liu Jiahui indicated that with the continuous positive interest rate spread, the September Policy Address will be another important indicator for the direction of the property market. Regarding the proposal to establish channels to facilitate cross-border property purchases between mainland China and Hong Kong, Liu Jiahui expressed agreement, mainly because it will facilitate mainland professionals to own property in Hong Kong and bring new purchasing power to the Hong Kong property market, easing the pressure of unsold inventory. In terms of investment immigration, it is suggested to further relax the criteria to include properties of any value, with the full property value included in the investment amount, to encourage investment immigrants to own property and bring in funds for Hong Kong. Simplifying immigration policies will also help attract high-quality talents and promote Hong Kong's long-term development. Liu Jiahui suggested that the Hong Kong government could consider reverting to the previous stamp duty payment method, where the stamp duty is paid after the completion of the transaction, providing more flexibility for property owners in the use of their funds and easing short-term financial pressures. Even if the transaction cannot be completed for various reasons, buyers do not have to suffer additional losses due to stamp duty already paid, thereby facilitating transactions. As speculative activities in the property market are currently rare, it is believed that relaxing policies will not lead to speculation.